Don't take this personally, but you are very likely to lose money betting on sports.  Why?

Because You’re a Punk.

Maybe that's a bit harsh, but I need to grab your attention.  Statistically speaking what I am telling you is true - you're a punk.  An emotional punk.  You lack the command of your emotions necessary to make good sports betting decisions.

You won’t bet consistently on big underdogs because you don’t have the nerve and the discipline required to do it.  Its plain and simple.  Don’t feel too bad, you’re not alone.  In fact you are overrun with company.  Less than 1% of sports bettors have the required skill set to be a winner: emotional control.  Ironically, it is this lack of control that turns them into the very thing they fear being - a net loser at sports betting.

Betting consistently on the underdogs is emotionally difficult.  They are underdogs for a reason - they are likely to lose!  Who wants to put their money down on a team that will probably lose?  Only those who know deep down that it is the surest way to beat the sportsbook in the long run.  It is the easiest way to find consistently good sports betting values. 

I have found over the years that I can intellectually convince most people of the value of underdog betting.  They understand the reasoning.  They see the logic.  Yet when they put their money down, logic goes out the window - they want to win!  And they want to win every bet.  Intellectually they know its not possible, but they want it.  Emotion overrides the intellect.

Quite a few will give betting on the underdogs a whirl.  They’ll try it out for a few bets.  Maybe 10.  Maybe 50.  But they cannot handle the strain of overriding their emotions bet after bet.  Or the strain of posting loser after loser.  And it happens…when you bet the underdogs the losing streaks are long and brutal. - even when the values you are getting are good.  Very, very few can hack it.  They lose faith.  Want overcomes logic.  They don't want to tell their buddies they picked a good sports betting value.  They want to tell their buddies they picked a winner.  Emotion overcomes intellect.  They are soon back with the herd, paying the sportsbook’s inflated price to get a bet on a team that is more likely to win.

Don’t kid yourself - that’s most likely how you handle your sports betting.  That's quite all right.  I don’t mind one little it.  The more money you put down on the favorites, the more values I will find on the underdogs.  By all means, keep driving the price up on the favorite.